Currency & Stock (inflation, deflation, the TRUTH!)

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Currency & Stock (inflation, deflation, the TRUTH!)

Postby Isaac Feynman » Sun May 31, 2009 19:03

Hello,

I can't afford going to school (and I'm getting old), so I have to ask for help on something I've been confused about for a long time.

Why do people buy currency? I can understand why someone would by stocks, because stocks produce dividends (so there's some profit to be made).

But buying money with money boggles my mind - because once a countries dollar is strong, who would ever it buy from you? It's not as if it's going to go up much more.

Another thing I'm confused about is how a loaf of bread in Zimbabwe costs 10 million dollars.

How the fuck did that happen? Don't get me wrong, I understand how a countries dollar can be sold increasingly cheaper, cheaper and cheaper until it's incredibly lacking in worth relative to the dollar of other countries. But I cannot reconcile that fact with the way business owners in Zimbabwe would set their prices so ridiculously high. It's like, I can't connect these two facts coherently.

So yeah, looking for some help! :P
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Re: Currency & Stock (inflation, deflation, the TRUTH!)

Postby gisys » Sun May 31, 2009 19:54

Well buying and selling currency on the forex can make you a poor man fast or rich. It’s simply buying low selling high .25 on the dollar with a few thousand is not bad. Not all stocks produce dividends.
Accurate or lawful delivery of something “IE a payment” requires three elements 1) Numeric quantity; 2) Unit of measure; and 3) the thing or substance being measured. Now ask yourself this does a US dollar have this? No and that’s how a cat burger in butt fuck Zimbabwe costs 10 million dollars. Nothing backs the money.
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia:
The United States dollar (sign: $; code: USD) is the unit of currency of the United States and is defined by the Coinage Act of 1792 to be between 371 and 416 grains (27.0 g) of silver (depending on purity).
Right now 416 grains is about $15.62/oz Silver. 416 grains is one oz.
What does that mean? Well in 1964 your dollar would be worth about 15 dollars more than it is now. 1964 is the year that we stopped putting silver in Quarters.
Try taking your dollar to the bank and getting an oz of silver LOL!

Hope this helps!
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Re: Currency & Stock (inflation, deflation, the TRUTH!)

Postby NoDeity » Sun May 31, 2009 20:00

But buying money with money boggles my mind - because once a countries dollar is strong, who would ever it buy from you? It's not as if it's going to go up much more.

Well, I'm no expert but I'd guess that owning a lot of a currency that is getting stronger as opposed to one that is weakening would increase your ability to buy stocks or goods.

But I cannot reconcile that fact with the way business owners in Zimbabwe would set their prices so ridiculously high.

Can you picture how ordinary inflation works? I guess runaway inflation is like that only at high speed. If products and supplies have to be imported from other countries and the value of your country's currency is swirling down the drain, then imported goods are going to cost increasingly more. Each merchant or supplier has to keep raising their prices in order to cover their rising costs and, hopefully, make a profit, too.
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Re: Currency & Stock (inflation, deflation, the TRUTH!)

Postby tism » Thu Jun 04, 2009 23:44

Isaac Feynman wrote:Why do people buy currency? I can understand why someone would by stocks, because stocks produce dividends (so there's some profit to be made).

Well, one obvious reason people would buy currency would be to use it.

Less obviously, people buy a currency if they speculate that it will become more valuable, just as people buy stocks, houses, etc for the same reason.

But buying money with money boggles my mind - because once a countries dollar is strong, who would ever it buy from you? It's not as if it's going to go up much more.

It can go up if enough people speculate that it will go up and want to buy it.

Another thing I'm confused about is how a loaf of bread in Zimbabwe costs 10 million dollars.

How the fuck did that happen? Don't get me wrong, I understand how a countries dollar can be sold increasingly cheaper, cheaper and cheaper until it's incredibly lacking in worth relative to the dollar of other countries. But I cannot reconcile that fact with the way business owners in Zimbabwe would set their prices so ridiculously high. It's like, I can't connect these two facts coherently.

When the supply of money increases relative to the supply of goods that the money pays for, the effect is an inflation of prices. Make up a lot of money, rebase your currency a couple times because you ran out of room for all the zeroes, and you get a hyperinflation like you describe.

The problem: Look at the source of the money and ask yourself how the money gains its value in the first place.
"Let us remember that no man can borrow money, as a good business transaction, under any system, unless he has the required security to make the lender whole in case he should lose the money. What a stupendous wrong is this—that a man having credit cannot use it, but must exchange it and pay a monopoly price, which is really for the privilege of using his own credit!"
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Re: Currency & Stock (inflation, deflation, the TRUTH!)

Postby Isaac Feynman » Fri Jun 05, 2009 06:43

tism wrote:When the supply of money increases relative to the supply of goods that the money pays for, the effect is an inflation of prices.


Why?

On another forum, a guy was telling me that an inflation of prices is caused by competing agents engaging in a bidding war for scarce raw materials. e.g., If the raw materials needed to make products are scarce, then the seller only needs a few clients, and if there are a lot of potential clients, all with a lot of money, then a bidding war starts, and the seller of raw goods ends up selling for really high, because that's what is being offered. This of course results in inflated prices on the common goods we buy in stores.

How does this logic sound to you?

Make up a lot of money, rebase your currency a couple times because you ran out of room for all the zeroes, and you get a hyperinflation like you describe.


What does rebase mean (in this context) and how do you rebase your currency?

The problem: Look at the source of the money


The source of the money? Would that be the government in combination with a country's available resources?

and ask yourself how the money gains its value in the first place.


Money gains or loses value when natural resources increase or wane. It seems like agriculture and mining are the very heart or foundation of the economy. If your country has rich agriculture and mining, then you're in good shape.

Isn't that right?
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Re: Currency & Stock (inflation, deflation, the TRUTH!)

Postby Isaac Feynman » Fri Jun 05, 2009 07:12

NoDeity wrote:Can you picture how ordinary inflation works?


Not in a way that I find very satisfying. Not yet anyway.

I guess runaway inflation is like that only at high speed. If products and supplies have to be imported from other countries and the value of your country's currency is swirling down the drain...[snip]


I want to corroborate something with you:

It seems like a country like Zimbabwe's currency swirls down the drain because people who buy currency imagine living in Zimbabwe, they take stock of what businesses are charging for products, and since everything costs a lot, then it follows that $1 American or Canadian NEEDS to be the equivalent to A LOT of Zimbabwe dollars, otherwise, if you were to go to Zimbabwe, you wouldn't be able to afford anything.

You talked about importing goods to a country like Zimbabwe...

I think importing goods becomes problematic only AFTER internal industries become pricey on their own, and they become pricey due to a scarcity of resources within the country. I talked to tism about how business owners compete for raw materials needed to manufacture their products. When resources are scarce, and when business owners are given big loans from the government, the business owners engage in a bidding war. Then disaster strikes.
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Re: Currency & Stock (inflation, deflation, the TRUTH!)

Postby tism » Fri Jun 05, 2009 08:05

Isaac Feynman wrote:What does rebase mean (in this context) and how do you rebase your currency?

Make a new, differently designed dollar bill denoted $1, and tell everyone that it is worth some power of ten amount of the old dollars.
"Let us remember that no man can borrow money, as a good business transaction, under any system, unless he has the required security to make the lender whole in case he should lose the money. What a stupendous wrong is this—that a man having credit cannot use it, but must exchange it and pay a monopoly price, which is really for the privilege of using his own credit!"
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Re: Currency & Stock (inflation, deflation, the TRUTH!)

Postby tism » Fri Jun 05, 2009 09:15

Isaac Feynman wrote:Why?

Like you mentioned, more money (old + new money) being used to bid against the same amount of goods. Think of it this way: If the prices of goods did not change, then there would become a relative shortage of goods, as more people would want to spend their money on goods and be unable to. That may even happen initially, in sectors which typically receive the newest money first. The immediate effect is shortage*, the lasting effect is inflation, due to the competition of spending dollars.

* Toward sectors where the issuing agent typically spends new money first, this shortage can be perpetual, since new money continues to outpace production. The insidious effect of this is that new money can actually spur growth at those sectors relative to other sectors.

On another forum, a guy was telling me that an inflation of prices is caused by competing agents engaging in a bidding war for scarce raw materials. e.g., If the raw materials needed to make products are scarce, then the seller only needs a few clients, and if there are a lot of potential clients, all with a lot of money, then a bidding war starts, and the seller of raw goods ends up selling for really high, because that's what is being offered. This of course results in inflated prices on the common goods we buy in stores.

How does this logic sound to you?

Yes I think that is accurate.

Money gains or loses value when natural resources increase or wane. It seems like agriculture and mining are the very heart or foundation of the economy. If your country has rich agriculture and mining, then you're in good shape.

Isn't that right?

Not entirely. Money's value comes from the demand of it, just as with any other resources. Some of this demand is coercively created such as from government decree that the money it endorses is the only money that shall be used, and decree that some of the money is to be paid toward the government (the government demands payment of taxes, denoted in the money it endorses).

Aside from that, even if inflation is minimal or considered "stable" by the economists, it does not make acceptable that the value of goods and work in whole sectors of the market is distorted by the direction of money being spent from the source, in order to impose the issuer's values onto the market and extract wealth from it.
Last edited by tism on Fri Jun 05, 2009 20:49, edited 1 time in total.
"Let us remember that no man can borrow money, as a good business transaction, under any system, unless he has the required security to make the lender whole in case he should lose the money. What a stupendous wrong is this—that a man having credit cannot use it, but must exchange it and pay a monopoly price, which is really for the privilege of using his own credit!"
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Re: Currency & Stock (inflation, deflation, the TRUTH!)

Postby tism » Fri Jun 05, 2009 09:27

Isaac Feynman wrote:It seems like a country like Zimbabwe's currency swirls down the drain because people who buy currency imagine living in Zimbabwe, they take stock of what businesses are charging for products, and since everything costs a lot, then it follows that $1 American or Canadian NEEDS to be the equivalent to A LOT of Zimbabwe dollars, otherwise, if you were to go to Zimbabwe, you wouldn't be able to afford anything.

People in Zimbabwe can't afford anything because, if they work, unless they are close to the source of new money, they cannot raise their asking prices fast enough to keep up with the rapid increase in prices on basic goods.

I think importing goods becomes problematic only AFTER internal industries become pricey on their own, and they become pricey due to a scarcity of resources within the country. I talked to tism about how business owners compete for raw materials needed to manufacture their products. When resources are scarce, and when business owners are given big loans from the government, the business owners engage in a bidding war. Then disaster strikes.

Yes that is accurate. To put it simply: Those who are using new money can crowd out those using old money, causing a devastating scarcity.
"Let us remember that no man can borrow money, as a good business transaction, under any system, unless he has the required security to make the lender whole in case he should lose the money. What a stupendous wrong is this—that a man having credit cannot use it, but must exchange it and pay a monopoly price, which is really for the privilege of using his own credit!"
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Re: Currency & Stock (inflation, deflation, the TRUTH!)

Postby gisys » Fri Jun 05, 2009 18:28

Here are some things that may help yah out as well.

Supply and demand simply put.
The more demand the higher the price.
The lower demand goes the lower the price.
Price will function to equalize the quantity demanded by consumers. This is what is called inflation, the rise in general price of goods. Deflation is the decrease in the general price of goods.

Disinflation is what you guys are talking about. This is VERY bad. This is what happens when Government allows cash to flow into the economy usually to jump start growth. This is what causes a bubble or fake demand of goods that would not normally be based on price, utility and quantity. When the point at which no one can afford to keep paying the higher price it pops. When a government tries to stop this from happing they dump massive amounts of money into the economy and we get hyperinflation.
None of this can happen when money is backed by something of value.
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Re: Currency & Stock (inflation, deflation, the TRUTH!)

Postby gisys » Sat Jun 06, 2009 06:03

I want to rephrase this.

None of this can happen when money is backed by something of value AND you have a free market that is not manipulated by government. This includes not having the protection that corporations are allowed.
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Re: Currency & Stock (inflation, deflation, the TRUTH!)

Postby tism » Sat Jun 06, 2009 16:20

gisys wrote:I want to rephrase this.

None of this can happen when money is backed by something of value AND you have a free market that is not manipulated by government. This includes not having the protection that corporations are allowed.

Now define "something of value." I'm thinking you refer to metals of some kind.

I used to be one of those metal bugs myself (even have a bit of it stashed under the floor somewhere...), but it is still not the definitive answer to the money problem. I don't believe anymore that there is any "objective" storage of value at all (which is part of why I don't call myself an "objectivist").

No, value is different to everyone, and a closer approximation to the real answer would be to allow for anyone to use whatever they want as money. e.g. a market of currencies. It may be that some kind of metal will dominate in such a market, but that is not to say that the metal itself is the objective store of value to compare everything against.
"Let us remember that no man can borrow money, as a good business transaction, under any system, unless he has the required security to make the lender whole in case he should lose the money. What a stupendous wrong is this—that a man having credit cannot use it, but must exchange it and pay a monopoly price, which is really for the privilege of using his own credit!"
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Re: Currency & Stock (inflation, deflation, the TRUTH!)

Postby gisys » Sat Jun 06, 2009 17:31

tism wrote:
gisys wrote:I want to rephrase this.

None of this can happen when money is backed by something of value AND you have a free market that is not manipulated by government. This includes not having the protection that corporations are allowed.

Now define "something of value." I'm thinking you refer to metals of some kind.

I used to be one of those metal bugs myself (even have a bit of it stashed under the floor somewhere...), but it is still not the definitive answer to the money problem. I don't believe anymore that there is any "objective" storage of value at all (which is part of why I don't call myself an "objectivist").

No, value is different to everyone, and a closer approximation to the real answer would be to allow for anyone to use whatever they want as money. e.g. a market of currencies. It may be that some kind of metal will dominate in such a market, but that is not to say that the metal itself is the objective store of value to compare everything against.


Any Commoditie that holds value. Metal being one of the biggest or most used. Really the capacity to transfer ones labor into buying; selling; barter; trafficing in.
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Re: Currency & Stock (inflation, deflation, the TRUTH!)

Postby Isaac Feynman » Thu Jun 11, 2009 07:16

Tism: When the supply of money increases relative to the supply of goods that the money pays for, the effect is an inflation of prices.

IF: Why?


Like you mentioned, more money (old + new money) being used to bid against the same amount of goods.


Has there been any talk on regulating the way money is used after it's being lent? For instance, government should take stock of what the current biddings are for products, and only lend to those who don't have money, with the agreement that, when they get the money, that they will not bid for products any higher than the average of what the products have recently been bought for. That way, prices won't inflate, and thus currency will stay strong.

Think of it this way: If the prices of goods did not change, then there would become a relative shortage of goods, as more people would want to spend their money on goods and be unable to.


I'm not sure I follow you here. It sounds like you are pointing toward the relationship between available resources and price-setting. You seem to be implying the ever-escalating prices protects an industry from becoming over-saturated with businesses, and thus preserves resources?

Think of it this way: If the prices of goods did not change, then there would become a relative shortage of goods, as more people would want to spend their money on goods and be unable to. That may even happen initially, in sectors which typically receive the newest money first. The immediate effect is shortage*<snip>


Here's my confusion: I'm thinking about the auto industry. They are printing and lending a lot of money to bail them out, but I don't see how this is going to lead to increased prices, nor do I see how it will introduce new businesses within the auto sector, nor do I see how the resources needed to sustain the auto-sector will suddenly become more scarce (well, I suppose the mining industry is always encountering diminishing returns, but I don't see how lending money will necessarily lead to any kind of acceleration towards depletion).

That may even happen initially, in sectors which typically receive the newest money first. The immediate effect is shortage*

* Toward sectors where the issuing agent typically spends new money first, this shortage can be perpetual, since new money continues to outpace production.


Why does new money outpace production? Is it because consumer appetites/demand, outpace supply? In other words, is new money a reflection of increased demand?

The insidious effect of this is that new money can actually spur growth at those sectors relative to other sectors.


Why is it insidious for new money to grow a sector? Why is one sector growing in relation to another, insidious?

Money gains or loses value when natural resources increase or wane. It seems like agriculture and mining are the very heart or foundation of the economy. If your country has rich agriculture and mining, then you're in good shape.

Isn't that right?

Not entirely. Money's value comes from the demand of it, just as with any other resources.


Yeah, but the demand of money seems to be a reflection of the supply of resources. Where there is a healthy supply of resources, then there develops a healthy demand of new money. When the supply of resources is sickly, then there develops a pathological demand for new money.

I'm not saying this very confidently, I just want to know what you and others think about it.

Some of this demand is coercively created such as from government decree that the money it endorses is the only money that shall be used, and decree that some of the money is to be paid toward the government (the government demands payment of taxes, denoted in the money it endorses).


I think you're implying that a population should be free to create their own currency and micro-economy, given that they perceive that the macro-economy and traditional currency is failing. Am I right?

Aside from that, even if inflation is minimal or considered "stable" by the economists, it does not make acceptable that the value of goods and work in whole sectors of the market is distorted by the direction of money being spent from the source,


This last point you're making is particularly confusing to me. When you saying "money being spent from the source" are you referring to the money that is being printed and lent by the issuers? Is printing and lending money the same as spending? Do you thinking printing and lending money is always wrong?

in order to impose the issuers values onto the market and extract wealth from it.


Your logic here seems to be: increase the money supply, and increase the taxes extracted from it (thereby increasing the wealth of the government/ruling class)

--------------------------------------------------

tism wrote:
Isaac Feynman wrote:It seems like a country like Zimbabwe's currency swirls down the drain because people who buy currency imagine living in Zimbabwe, they take stock of what businesses are charging for products, and since everything costs a lot, then it follows that $1 American or Canadian NEEDS to be the equivalent to A LOT of Zimbabwe dollars, otherwise, if you were to go to Zimbabwe, you wouldn't be able to afford anything.

People in Zimbabwe can't afford anything because, if they work, unless they are close to the source of new money, they cannot raise their asking prices fast enough to keep up with the rapid increase in prices on basic goods.


What do you mean by new money? As far as I know, there is only one currency in Zimbabwe. Although, I suppose when Zimbabwe exports goods, they receive money from other countries...

I think importing goods becomes problematic only AFTER internal industries become pricey on their own, and they become pricey due to a scarcity of resources within the country. I talked to tism about how business owners compete for raw materials needed to manufacture their products. When resources are scarce, and when business owners are given big loans from the government, the business owners engage in a bidding war. Then disaster strikes.


Yes that is accurate. To put it simply: Those who are using new money can crowd out those using old money, causing a devastating scarcity.


I need to clarify something here. When you referring to those people who are using new money, are you simply referring to another country (like America) who is buying products from Zimbabwe with their American currency?
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Re: Currency & Stock (inflation, deflation, the TRUTH!)

Postby tism » Thu Jun 11, 2009 10:10

Isaac thanks for the reply. I apologize that my posts have been confusing to read. The things I wrote here are part of something I have wanted to write about for awhile, but have not yet finished putting it together, so it may seem loose. I've been interested in the nature of money and the ability of money to be used as a tool for wealth-extraction. But of course that is something that must be well-qualified.

I will reply to a few of your points, but I'll have to come back later and reply to the rest since I don't have time.

I think you're implying that a population should be free to create their own currency and micro-economy, given that they perceive that the macro-economy and traditional currency is failing. Am I right?

That's almost right. The freedom of currency applies to every individual, not the population as a whole. And it is not "given that they perceive" anything. The freedom to use your preferred currency is a right regardless of whatever condition the "macro-economy" or "traditional currency" is in.

When you saying "money being spent from the source" are you referring to the money that is being printed and lent by the issuers? Is printing and lending money the same as spending?

Yes and yes. Sorry for the confusion. Money has an origin. When I say "spent from the source," I mean the first time the freshly conjured money is spent. I'll need to say more about that.

Do you thinking printing and lending money is always wrong?

Yes.

Your logic here seems to be: increase the money supply, and increase the taxes extracted from it (thereby increasing the wealth of the government/ruling class)

No. The wealth-extraction is more insidious than that, and doesn't stop at government.
"Let us remember that no man can borrow money, as a good business transaction, under any system, unless he has the required security to make the lender whole in case he should lose the money. What a stupendous wrong is this—that a man having credit cannot use it, but must exchange it and pay a monopoly price, which is really for the privilege of using his own credit!"
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